Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 143 completed bets (there are outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
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Neither of the college basketball games tonight look good as far as making picks goes, but there are two favorable moneylines in the MLB. As always, lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this, and as always, Fangraphs is a treasure.
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
The Phillies are trying to stay undefeated in the Bryce Harper era, while Bryse Wilson tries to start an era of his own for Atlanta.
Fangraphs rates Wilson as the 72nd best prospect in baseball, and today he’ll make just his second career start.
Wilson wasn’t expected to be the Braves’ number-two starter to begin the year, but with Kevin Gausman and Mike Foltynewicz out for at least a couple more weeks, Wilson and fellow rookie Kyle Wright are in a higher-pressure situation than Atlanta’s brass would likely prefer.
Opposite Wilson is Nick Pivetta, who’s had his share of struggles the last two years but has shown signs of being due for positive regression. He’s got good command, but it’s hard at a glance to separate out his bad luck from any damaging tendencies.
Pivetta and the Phils are the favorites for good reason, but the line seems to be underestimating Wilson’s potential to keep the game close enough for Freddie Freeman & Co. to do their thing.
Pick: Atlanta to win +130. Low confidence.
Anaheim @ Oakland
For the second straight night, the A’s have a positive expected value on the moneyline. Last night, they were on their way to a win, but Joakim Soria struggled, Ryan Buchter walked in a run, and Fernando Rodney let the Angels put the game away.
This shouldn’t be too concerning for Oakland fans in the long term (it’s just one data point), but in the short term, the bullpen will be without a few of its top assets tonight. Soria and Lou Trivino have each pitched back-to-back nights, so if the A’s are trying to hold a lead late, the bridge to Blake Treinen looks shakier than usual.
Still, the line favors the A’s, and I trust the numbers, though it’s worth noting this is the third game in a four-game set and lineups aren’t posted yet.
Felix Pena, converted from a mediocre reliever to a serviceable starter last season, gets the start for the Angels, while Brett Anderson, the oft-injured journeyman who was once a top prospect/breakout rookie, takes the mound for the A’s.
Pick: Oakland to win -115. Low confidence.
