Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,791 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
No new futures today, though one of these is associated with those for us:
Kansas State vs. Florida Atlantic
We have outstanding futures on each of these two to win this game, netting 5.5 units with an FAU win and 8 units with a K-State win. This isn’t impacted by those, but it does kind of act as a hedge between them, with the upside scenario being one where Kansas State wins by exactly one point. Overall, though, again: Not impacted by the futures. We simply think FAU is the better team here, and that this has been obscured by how exciting K-State is.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +2 (-110). Low confidence.
Gonzaga vs. UConn
Again here, we see UConn as the better team. We don’t trust either of these to win six games in a row, but that’s not what’s in front of them any more, and in one game, that question goes out the window.
Pick: UConn -2.5 (-109). Low confidence.
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