Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,032 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day and futures forms.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 133–102–1 and we’re down 8.06 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss. We’re reeling a little right now, and in our waffling between moneylines and spreads we’re going back to spreads today.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd with 350 units in our portfolio. We had a bad Champ Week, but we’ve got some solid value alive that should start cashing next Saturday and Sunday.
Arizona vs. Dayton
It seems the public might be on board with us here, which is a red flag, but we don’t trust Arizona to show up consistently. That’s been a problem in the Tommy Lloyd era, and it’s gone beyond Kerr Kriisa. This is a very early tipoff for Arizona’s body clocks, and for a team so dependent on pace and flow, that feels worse than it would feel for someone like Houston.
Pick: Dayton +8.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Kansas vs. Gonzaga
We’re very much aligned with the public here, but it feels too simple. Kansas having the pride to get through one game makes sense. Kansas managing to beat a good team without Kevin McCullar is too long a shot.
Pick: Gonzaga –3.5 (–115). Low confidence.
North Carolina vs. Michigan State
Again, we’re with the public (I’m going off of impressions here, not data, so if I’m wrong on what the public’s betting, my bad). Michigan State’s a good team, but they haven’t beaten good teams. That can change, but until it does, their best victories are both in the state of Michigan and against only Illinois and Baylor.
Pick: North Carolina –4 (–110). Low confidence.
Iowa State vs. Washington State
Yet again, I believe we’re in alignment here with the betting masses. I trust Iowa State to choke teams out. Are they Hilton merchants? Maybe. But they’ve won at TCU, Texas, Cincinnati, and UCF, and they’ve long thrived in a Kansas City Big 12 Tournament environment which should be very similar to today’s in Omaha.
Pick: Iowa State –6.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Creighton vs. Oregon
This time, we’re going against the public perception, because I think Dana Altman is overrated. A lot of people out there are claiming he’s underrated, to the extent that even if he was, the perception has flipped. Good in-game coach? Yes. Playing above his talent level? Not at all. Oregon consistently has a lot of talent. Creighton is in that sweet spot of having often won tournament games but still seeking that first Final Four.
Pick: Creighton –4 (–110). Low confidence.
Virginia Tech @ Ohio State
We’re nervous about Ohio State here (full transparency: we want a good crowd for the NIT Final Four). Virginia Tech doesn’t seem to have any of the wrong kind of pride, and Ohio State’s defense had a lot of issues against Cornell. It’s easy to make too much of one game, especially in the NIT where effort can shift after the first round, but we’re nervous about Ohio State.
Pick: Virginia Tech +6 (–109). Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
Ten more today, as we stay on pace. This gets us up to 19 teams on whom we have at least one future down, with somewhere between 3 and 15 of those set to play into the Sweet Sixteen. We aren’t doing any hedging yet, but we might do some tomorrow depending how today’s results go. Our current total portfolio eROI is –0.9%, which is great after we lost almost twenty units on the combined Champ Week/Selection Sunday bets but isn’t at the territory yet where it makes sense to start sacrificing value for the sake of profit probability. We need more flexibility to make that pivot make sense. Hopefully, we’ll have so much flexibility after today that we don’t even need to consider shifting approach.
Thoughts on these:
- We’re using our lukewarm kenpom model as the basis for what has value and what doesn’t, and that has us leaning against UConn across the board. A little of this might be our model not considering UConn’s crowd advantage in Brooklyn and (probably) Boston, but we do think the market’s too high on UConn to take the Huskies as anything but a hedge.
- NC State, Texas, Utah State, Northwestern, and Michigan State are all new to the portfolio today. First time seeing value on those this week, at least at the extent to which we want it. (We did have Northwestern and Texas earlier this year, to make this tournament.)
- Houston is now our best national championship hope out of the realistic contenders. They’ve passed Purdue for us in terms of upside. Our heads still like Purdue, but the Houston value and probability are both really good, and we trust the numbers more than our heads.
- We have something on all four teams in the bottom half of the West Region, but those range from 2 to win 28 on Arizona winning the tournament to 2 to win 110 on Dayton to reach the Final Four to 1 to win 26 on Clemson reaching the Final Four, with a few others in there as well. There’s a lot of value for us in Dayton among that group.
Pick: Duke to make Elite Eight +300. Low confidence.
Pick: NC State to make Elite Eight +375. Low confidence.
Pick: Texas to make Elite Eight +650. Low confidence.
Pick: Utah State to make Elite Eight +1500. Low confidence.
Pick: Northwestern to make Elite Eight +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Illinois to make Final Four +650. Low confidence.
Pick: Michigan State to make Final Four +1000. Low confidence.
Pick: Iowa State to make national championship +850. Low confidence.
Pick: Illinois to make national championship +1300. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston to win national championship +550. Low confidence.
