Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident bracketologist, as well as our all-around numbers guy. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 119 bets, but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 56% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
As the postseason tournaments narrow, so does our field of possible picks. There are still six games today where I think we’ve got at least a slight edge, though. As always, lines come from the Vegas consensus at the time I write this up.
LSU vs. Maryland – NCAA Tournament Second Round
LSU is great on the offensive glass, but defensively, they’re almost inexplicably bad at rebounding. Maryland can pull down boards at each end, but turns the ball over too much, playing into LSU’s hand.
LSU should be a favorite in this, as it is, but it’s closer to a tossup than the line’s giving it credit for being.
Pick: Maryland +3 (-110). Low confidence.
Kentucky vs. Wofford – NCAA Tournament Second Round
Today will more likely than not be the final day of Wofford’s season. If it isn’t, though, and the Terriers take down Kentucky, it’ll be interesting to see if that’s finally enough for oddsmakers to give them the respect they deserve.
Wofford, as you probably know, likes to shoot three’s, and is very good at shooting three’s. Kentucky’s three-point defense is on the wrong side of the median in Division I men’s basketball.
Yes, Kentucky has an advantage inside, but Cameron Jackson is an efficient man down low for Wofford, which I point out to say that it isn’t as big a mismatch as it may seem.
The line has, as it should have, shifted towards Wofford a point since opening. It’s still a bit too high on Kentucky, though.
Pick: Wofford +5 (-110). Low confidence.
Michigan vs. Florida – NCAA Tournament Second Round
Florida is dangerous, as Nevada learned on Thursday. But Michigan might just be too good for the Gators. The numbers suggest Florida won’t be able to force as many turnovers as they’d like to, and will struggle mightily to score points on the other end.
Pick: Michigan -6 (-110). Low confidence.
FIU @ Texas State – CIT First Round
There’s a weird line on a CIT game. It’s possible there’s a good reason for this—maybe the tempo divide favors the visiting Panthers, who play the fastest basketball in the country—but Texas State is more than seven points better than FIU when the game’s in San Marcos.
Pick: Texas State -7 (-110). Medium confidence.
Purdue vs. Villanova – NCAA Tournament Second Round
Villanova is going to keep putting up three’s, which Purdue isn’t all that great at defending, but the Boilermakers should get enough second chances to keep this from going down to the final possession.
Pick: Purdue -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Kansas vs. Auburn – NCAA Tournament Second Round
This game, on paper, is very even. Yes, Kansas’ weaknesses (turnovers, mainly) play into Auburn’s strengths, but the Jayhawks have the weaponry to get a win. It’s very close to being a no-go, but I’ll take Kansas.
Pick: Kansas +2 (-110). Low confidence.
