Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,304 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.2% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Three today:
NCAAT First Round: LSU vs. St. Bonaventure
It seems, based on this and today’s third pick, that KenPom is higher on the A-10 than the market. Is Pomeroy right? Maybe, maybe not. For whatever it’s worth, St. Bonaventure’s strength inside should cause problems for an LSU team that struggles to defend both paint and perimeter and often gets crushed on the defensive glass.
Pick: St. Bonaventure +2 (-110). Low confidence.
NIT First Round: Saint Louis vs. Mississippi State
Either someone’s sitting this one out and I missed it, or this total’s too cautious. Yes, Mississippi State slows it down, and yes, the Bulldogs struggle to score, but Saint Louis sometimes pushes it offensively, and the Billikens are capable of some efficient scoring.
Pick: Over 135 (-110). Low confidence.
NCAAT First Round: Oregon vs. VCU
Again, it’s possible KenPom’s overvaluing the A-10.
But it’s also possible he’s not.
Pick: VCU +5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
