Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,250 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by early April, with college basketball futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
More futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus with the futures. First, though:
Baylor vs. North Carolina
We’ve seen a similar story from UNC all year. They look phenomenal for a night, like a national championship contender, and then they play like they’ve never touched a basketball before a game or two or three games later. We don’t know for sure that this is what will happen today, but Baylor’s more than five and a half points better than the Tar Heels, and it wouldn’t be surprising if there was some comparable phenomenon to home-court advantage working for the Bears playing so close to Waco.
Pick: Baylor -5.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Kansas vs. Creighton
Creighton might get blown out today. But. Their style of play is decidedly different from recent years, and it makes them a lot less prone to blowouts. They don’t shoot an unusual number of threes. Their offense slows it down. Kansas might crush Creighton, but the line should probably be closer than this.
Pick: Creighton +11.5 (-109). Medium confidence.
Gonzaga vs. Memphis
At its best, yes, Memphis is a team that can play with Gonzaga. But it’s rare to see Memphis at its best for a full game. Even on Thursday, playing a Boise State team that was all sorts of out of whack offensively, the Tigers took a 19-point halftime lead and turned it into a competitive game, and did so over a wildly small number of possessions, even if it took some time. Maybe this is carryover from Gonzaga’s first thirty minutes against Georgia State. Maybe there’s some merit to that. But if the idea here is that Memphis is blossoming into a team capable of running with the best team in the country, that’s a bad idea to follow.
Pick: Gonzaga -10 (-110). Medium confidence.
Now, the futures:
NCAA Tournament
Four main developments here:
First, the runner up market is oddly advantageous. Some weird lines here, we’re jumping on a lot of them. It’s a bit of a mind-twister to be on a team to be the runner up, but given our underdog-heavy portfolio, it’ll actually be easier to hedge against these, should we have that desire and opportunity, than it would be to hedge against bets on these teams to win the title, since most members of our portfolio would be an underdog in the event they did make the championship game.
Second, Texas Tech has value. That is a nice team to have in the fold. Our fourth peripheral contender, joining Houston and Tennessee and UCLA.
Third, we’re having to add second bets on teams because our total quantity of units invested has gotten large enough that we want more. This isn’t good or bad, but if you’re wondering if we bet on Creighton yesterday as well, you’re remembering correctly.
Fourth, we’re putting a lot on the Baylor moneyline today. We wouldn’t (and didn’t) make this as a daily bet, because we run our daily bets and futures entirely separately, but it is a positive-value play, and given the nine teams we aren’t in on are three 1-seeds, two 2-seeds, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, and Saint Peter’s, it’s nice to have a favorite on our side. With futures elsewhere on UNC, UCLA, Saint Mary’s, Texas, and Murray State, it won’t hurt us if Baylor loses, but a win could start trimming the gap we need to cover. Sixteen units.
Pick: Baylor to make Sweet Sixteen -230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Baylor to make Sweet Sixteen -230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Baylor to make Sweet Sixteen -230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Baylor to make Sweet Sixteen -230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Baylor to make Sweet Sixteen -230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Baylor to make Sweet Sixteen -230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Baylor to make Sweet Sixteen -230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Baylor to make Sweet Sixteen -230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Creighton to make Final Four +4000. Low confidence.
Pick: TCU to make Final Four +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Notre Dame to make Final Four +6600. Low confidence.
Pick: Texas Tech to win +2200. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas Tech to win +2200. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas Tech to win +2200. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas to win +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Villanova to be runner up +2500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Villanova to be runner up +2500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to be runner up +2200. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to be runner up +2200. Medium confidence.
Pick: Wisconsin to be runner up +6000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Tennessee to be runner up +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Arkansas to be runner up +7000. Low confidence.
Pick: Murray State to be runner up +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Providence to be runner up +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Memphis to be runner up +15000. Low confidence.
Pick: Michigan State to be runner up +15000. Low confidence.
Pick: Iowa State to be runner up +20000. Low confidence.
Pick: Miami to be runner up +20000. Low confidence.
Pick: Richmond to be runner up +20000. Low confidence.
