Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,968 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day bets and futures form.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 126–92–1 and we’re down 4.74 units. We went through a stretch of mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and we’re still on track to invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six or seven per day.
South Florida vs. UAB
UAB’s a solid program, but USF’s playing well still, even with the loss to end the regular season. This is close enough, too, that we might get some help if the close–wins thing is real with the Bulls.
Pick: South Florida –2 (–110). Low confidence.
Illinois vs. Nebraska
We love this Nebraska team and want them to succeed, and we don’t have a ton of faith in Illinois. But. Illinois is more than 4.5 points better than the Huskers.
Pick: Illinois –4.5 (–110). Low confidence.
San Diego State vs. New Mexico
San Diego State runs this league, even when they’re down, and New Mexico has had to play under a lot more stress in their run so far.
Pick: San Diego State –2.5 (–105). Low confidence.
Big Ten Tournament
The value’s solid here, and we can see the angle: Wisconsin’s shooting well, and Purdue should be focusing on next weekend. We’ll take the upside.
Pick: Wisconsin to win +800. Low confidence.
ACC Tournament
This just seems mispriced. No, we don’t think NC State will pull it off, but we still don’t fully trust UNC, and again—the upside is great.
Pick: NC State to win +430. Low confidence.
Big 12 Tournament
Kansas City will be a home court for Iowa State, but only to an extent. Houston’s the better team, and even with their eyes on next week, we think the Big 12 sweep and a win in the rubbermatch over ISU will be motivation enough.
Pick: Houston to win –240. Low confidence.
Big West Tournament
LBSU might be the better team here, straight up.
Pick: Long Beach State to win +115. Low confidence.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky is the better team here, straight up.
Pick: Western Kentucky to win –145. Low confidence.
Pac-12 Tournament
2019 was only one year, guys.
Pick: Colorado to win –145. Low confidence.
SWAC Tournament
Can a regular season champion win its tournament?? We think so.
Pick: Grambling to win +125. Low confidence.
Hello.
Good luck 🙂