Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,287 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.8% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Futures odds, as usual, come from Bovada due to the absence of a reliable, fast-updating Vegas consensus.
American Athletic Conference Tournament Champion
Looking like one side of the bracket’s overvalued here—the Cincinnati/Wichita State side.
After a rough start to the year for Cincy followed by a Covid-driven absence, they’ve won eight of eleven, but their best win in that stretch was yesterday’s on a neutral court against returning-after-a-month-away SMU, and the Bearcast have also lost to Vanderbilt, at home, by double digits in recent weeks.
Wichita State, meanwhile, does have that win over Houston in mid-February, but they haven’t been dominant outside of that game. They’ve avoided bad losses, and they do have a road win over Mississippi to go with the Houston upset, but they’ve struggled with bad teams at times, including yesterday, when South Florida nearly took them down.
Whoever wins the Houston/Memphis game should be favored tomorrow, and by more than these odds would indicate.
Pick: Houston to win -170. Medium confidence.
Pick: Memphis to win +650. Low confidence.
