Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,122 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by early April, with college basketball futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
More conference tournament futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Davidson vs. Saint Louis
Is Saint Louis burnt out? Can Davidson control the tempo? The thing about that first thing is that if it’s true, and if this is a slow game, Davidson should be able to get a lot of open looks. It’s kind of like having multiple outs in poker.
Pick: Over 136 (-114). Medium confidence.
Southeastern Louisiana vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
I’m not sure where this line is coming from, but AMCC’s the better team.
Pick: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +2.5 (-108). Medium confidence.
Long Beach State vs. Cal State-Fullerton
End of a busy week, yes, but that’s probably overblown, especially given the impact of dead legs on the defensive end.
Pick: Over 136.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
And now, the futures:
MEAC Tournament
It’s been a rough go of it in conference tournaments, with our longshot-heavy portfolio crashing out. We’re adding a few today where there’s value, starting with Norfolk State, who seems to be being attributed an unnecessary degree of uncertainty from the market.
Pick: Norfolk State to win -360. Medium confidence.
Pick: Norfolk State to win -360. Medium confidence.
Pick: Norfolk State to win -360. Medium confidence.
Pick: Norfolk State to win -360. Medium confidence.
Pick: Norfolk State to win -360. Medium confidence.
Conference USA Tournament
Sometimes, opportunities come back around, and UAB, who looked dead in the water through mostly some rough scheduling luck, is now one winnable win away from going to the NCAA Tournament. They should take care of business today, even if Louisiana Tech’s a good team (which they are).
Pick: UAB to win -150. Medium confidence.
Pick: UAB to win -150. Medium confidence.
Pick: UAB to win -150. Medium confidence.
Pick: UAB to win -150. Medium confidence.
Pick: UAB to win -150. Medium confidence.
Mountain West Conference Tournament
San Diego State is the team to beat in the Mountain West. But they can be beaten. And Boise State, who’s comfortable in those sorts of games, has a solid shot today.
Pick: Boise State to win +130. Medium confidence.
Southland Conference Tournament
Same note as above, but in the futures realm.
Pick: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to win +135. Medium confidence.
WAC Tournament
Abilene Christian causes trouble. They’re the kind of team where you need a favorite to be absolutely phenomenal at handling the ball and keeping a cool head if you’re going to feel safe with that favorite. New Mexico State’s not at that level.
Pick: Abilene Christian to win +190. Medium confidence.
