Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,441 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.1% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Miami @ Pittsburgh
This is a risky one. The Marlins are missing Miguel Rojas and Brian Anderson. The market’s been a bit irrationally high on them, at least in the futures arena. The market knows Trevor Rogers is good. They’re the Marlins.
Still, though, Trevor Rogers has been better than his projections and one good start a week ago aside, Chase De Jong has yet to have any semblance of big-league success over his sporadic stints in the majors. That one good start came against the Rockies. The Rockies are bad. It was in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh isn’t a bad place to pitch.
It’s not a great value play, but it’s a play, and it’s one of the most likely winners today.
Pick: Miami to win -140. Low confidence.
Houston @ Toronto/Buffalo
This one’s also risky. José Urquidy’s outperformed expectations. The wind’s blowing hard across the diamond, which is something I’ve struggled to figure out how to assess. But at some point, you have to start taking advantage of the market apparently forgetting that Sahlen Field’s park factor was outrageously high last year or discounting that to the small sample size, which might be appropriate but might not be appropriate either. Regress the park factor by a third and this is still a play the math says to take. We’re going to take it. At least for today.
Pick: Over 10 (-115). Low confidence.
