Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,557 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and election futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 85–74 so far, down 5.12 units. It seems we did not, in fact, find something that worked. We keep trying, though. And we’re up 3.34 units so far this week.
Election futures: These have been our best market historically, with a 17% overall ROI and significant profits both times we’ve done them—in 2020 and 2022. We’re putting 1,000 units into our portfolio this year, but we’re betting it as a series of 20 mini-portfolios, each leveraged against itself. With the exception of Thursday’s first batch, we’re trying to do these on Saturdays.
Pittsburgh @ Atlanta
Since his debut on May 11th, Paul Skenes has compiled a 2.14 ERA over 46 1/3 innings, backed by a 2.50 FIP, a 33.7% strikeout rate, and a 4.4% walk rate.
Since Paul Skenes’s debut on May 11th, Max Fried has compiled a 2.09 ERA over 51 2/3 innings, backed by a 2.61 FIP, a 23.9% strikeout rate, and a 6.5% walk rate.
Skenes has narrowly been the better pitcher on an inning-per-inning basis. Fried has done it over more innings, producing a nearly identical amount of value. Fried has much better teammates. This is a good price on Atlanta, even if there’s a little rain delay before the start of the game.
Pick: Atlanta to win –137. Low confidence. (Skenes and Fried must start.)
San Diego @ Boston
Tanner Houck remains the best pitcher in baseball, and it probably stinks for him that people aren’t noticing, but it’s nice for us. Michael King’s been good, but Houck is special right now.
Pick: Boston to win –133. Low confidence. (King and Houck must start.)
Houston @ New York (NL)
Yes, the Mets are on fire. No, Framber Valdez isn’t quite what he usually is. But the Astros are pretty hot themselves, and you’re still getting Valdez vs. Tylor Megill with the Astros as an underdog. We’ll take that.
Pick: Houston to win +104. Low confidence. (Valdez and Megill must start.)
2024 United States Presidential Election
Should we be revisiting these today? Yes. We’re going to stick with our plan. We knew there could be major events in the race and delayed polling responses. Should we adjust how we interpret Nate Silver’s model? I’m not sure. There’s a widespread impression that Thursday’s debate really hurt Joe Biden’s chances. Expectations hold that early this week, updated polling will reflect this shift. My impression is that Silver’s model expects uncertainty in every direction after an inflection point like a debate and is therefore likely overestimating Biden at the moment.
Still, we’re going to fairly blindly trust it, for these three reasons:
- First, I would guess that conventional wisdom and therefore betting markets is/are overestimating the magnitude of the shift. It’s June. Many Biden voters are not voting for Biden so much as voting against Trump. That was the case going into the debate, and while the debate undoubtedly shook some voters off Biden’s side, it’s doubtful the shift is as massive as betting markets suggest. Voters are fairly entrenched people these days in the United States of America.
- Second, our one vulnerability on Thursday was a scenario where the Democratic candidate wins by a small or medium amount. Republican wins? Thursday’s bets likely profit. Democrat wins big? Thursday’s bets likely profit. Democrat wins small or medium? That’s where we were concerned. If we’re going to err in any direction, then, this is the one we want.
- Third, this may have increased Democratic upside. The likelihood of a different Democratic candidate is higher now than it was two days ago, and given how anti-Trump the Democratic coalition is, I’m not sure that hypothetical candidate’s downside is any bigger than Biden’s. 2020 Biden had a blue-collar, responsible–adult reputation which set him apart from the rest of the Democratic primary field. 2024 Biden doesn’t have that. In short, then, I kind of see two scenarios: Either the polls don’t move much, and we gain some expected value by keeping our impression similar to Thursday’s, or the polls move a lot, Joe Biden is convinced to drop out, and Democratic upside rises. This was bad for Joe Biden’s presidential chances, but I’m not sure it was all that bad for the Democrats.
I’m not a political scientist, nor did I sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night. My bias does lean away from Trump (full disclosure: I don’t live in a swing state, and if the election was today, my top two choices would be voting Libertarian or abstaining from the Presidential section of the ballot). But you’re reading my election bets, so those are my thoughts, for whatever they’re worth.
The bets:
We wanted value on the Democratic candidate, but it’s hard to find. New Jersey is no longer a positive-value bet like it was on Thursday. Virginia still is, though, probably because it has a Republican governor. We don’t love putting so much stock in Virginia, but there aren’t a lot of other options for safe Democratic states at a price which provides a meaningful return. Since we’re rather well set up for a Republican landslide, we’re adding 18 more units on VA. It was one of Nikki Haley’s best states in the primary. It’s a different animal from North Carolina.
Thankfully, we have enough flexibility (spoiler: Trump’s the popular vote favorite in Nate Silver’s model) to put a combined twelve units down on Illinois and New York. I don’t know why books offer these prices, but they do, and they’re nice. We’re not above a 5.3% return on some bets.
Pick: Democratic Candidate to win Virginia –390. Medium confidence. x9
Pick: Democratic Candidate to win Illinois –1900. Medium confidence. x3
Pick: Democratic Candidate to win New York –1900. Medium confidence. x3
On the GOP side, it’s easier. At least one book hasn’t adjusted its Georgia price to account for Thursday, so we can put twelve units there with some comfort. There’s also pretty good value on Nebraska’s second congressional district, which gets its own electoral vote because Nebraska and Maine handle the electoral college differently from the other 48 states.
Trump, as we mentioned in that parenthetical above, is the popular vote favorite, and while we like to avoid bets on these specific candidates by name given their age (health concerns are large for both candidates, even if Biden’s the one acting older), the probability Trump doesn’t reach Election Day as the Republican nominee is low enough to make this worthwhile again. So, six more units on it, bringing us to 50 units for the day.
If Silver’s favorites all win, we’ll net a 35% profit on these 50 units. If the Democrats win by a medium amount, we’ll make back some of what we’d lose on Thursday’s bets. If the GOP wins so big that they win Virginia, we’ll lose 0.3% of these 50 units, but that’ll be more than washed out by Thursday’s mini-portfolio. We remain exposed to that medium Democrat win, but it’s not as bad a scenario for our bets as it was before we placed all these.
Hopefully the Economist launches its Senate and House models soon. We can probably finagle something connecting those to Silver’s presidential model to find safer Democrat plays. See you next Saturday.
Pick: Republican Candidate to win NE–2 +180. Medium confidence.
Pick: Republican Candidate to win Georgia –275. Medium confidence. x6
Pick: Donald Trump to win popular vote +165. Medium confidence. x3
