Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 307 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Los Angeles @ Colorado
Having been one of the Rockies’ better pitchers in his first few seasons, it was disappointing to see Jon Gray struggle last year. At one point, he had a 5.77 ERA, and was sent to AAA to turn things around.
After returning to the majors, he “did better,” putting up a 4.37 ERA in 14 starts. But his FIP was 5.17, indicating perhaps things weren’t all fixed.
Except…they weren’t exactly broken in the first place. At the time of his demotion, he was sporting a 3.14 FIP. Which goes to show how the timing and placement of hits can conspire to really screw a guy over, or make him king.
On the season, he finished last year with a 4.08 FIP, which is identical to his number entering tonight’s game. His ERA this year, though? 3.92. Jon Gray has “turned things around.”
Pick: Over 12.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Pick: Colorado to win (+135). Low confidence.
Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee
Jordan Lyles comes off the IL today to start for the Pirates in Milwaukee. Lyles, who’s already pitched in four organizations at the relatively young age of 28, was having a great year for Pittsburgh prior to his hamstring injury, and as the Pirates have been making up ground in the NL Central, they’re likely excited to have him back.
In twelve starts, Lyles has a 3.64 ERA (backed by a 3.67 FIP), and has been worth 1.4 WAR.
Pretty good for a guy the Rockies straight-up released in 2017.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win (+185). Low confidence.
