Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 288 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Cincinnati @ Milwaukee
Yesterday, I wrote that Sonny Gray was Cincinnati’s best pitcher. And at the time, using season-to-date FIP as the measuring stick, that was technically true. But it was hyperbolic. Any reasonable take would say Luis Castillo is the Reds’ best pitcher. His ERA is hardly more than half Gray’s. His FIP, after a middling performance from Gray yesterday, is now better by hairs. He strikes out more batters and allows fewer home runs. He throws more innings.
That isn’t to take anything away from Gray—he’s been great this season, and really does seem to be resurging. But Castillo is Cincinnati’s ace, which is saying something in their rather strong rotation.
As a whole, the Reds’ pitching staff ranks third in both ERA and FIP, and ranks fourth in fWAR, despite playing in the third-worst park for pitchers in the MLB. Their starters are only seventh in fWAR but have similar ERA and FIP rankings to the bullpen, a result of David Bell keeping his pitchers on a tight leash.
That short leash was on display the last time Luis Castillo pitched in Milwaukee, a month ago today. He was removed prior to the end of the third inning, having walked three and allowed two home runs while striking out just two.
Is there reason to be afraid of Castillo repeating the performance tonight? Not especially. It was one start, and he’s been great again since it. Yes, there’s a chance it’ll be in his head, but the last time he was really knocked around on the road—last August at Wrigley Field—he threw six and two-thirds innings of one-run ball in the same park three weeks later.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +110. Low confidence.
Colorado @ Los Angeles
Speaking of bad memories, Peter Lambert was the Colorado starter Sunday in that 14-13 Padres/Rockies game. He allowed eight runs in three innings, suffering an astonishing .571 opposing batting average on balls in play.
To be sure, Lambert suffered some bad luck. Hunter Renfroe’s first inning home run had only a 7% likelihood of even being a hit, given the quality of contact, and no major league pitcher can sustain a .571 opposing BABIP.
But Lambert did allow seven balls to be hit 100 mph or harder, which highlights a risk for all pitchers like him who throw a lot of strikes without having a particularly unhittable repertoire: those pitches more strikingly need to be better-located and better-sequenced than, say, a Jordan Hicks fastball if they’re to avoid getting smoked.
Still, through three major league starts Lambert has a five-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio, and while his 3.90 FIP probably overestimates his performance so far (given his average exit velocity has been over 90 mph), it’s closer to an accurate evaluation than his 6.00 ERA.
His career is young, and the uncertainty of his trajectory goes without saying. But while enthusiasm should be tempered, he’s still a top 150 prospect. It’s not unreasonable for Rockies fans to put hope in him.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 +105. Low confidence.
