Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 276 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to make money.
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Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
New York (AL) @ Chicago (AL)
To say a bullpen missing Dellin Betances has been “relatively untouched” by injuries is nonsense, but looking at the current IL report out of the Bronx, relief pitching does stand as an area of relative health for the AL East contender.
The importance of a bullpen is undeniable, but in the case of the Yankees, it’s already gained the team two or three wins compared to the MLB average. Which, with Tampa Bay not letting up and Boston/Cleveland still very much threats, are an important two or three wins. Especially with over half the regular season remaining.
The arsenal of top arms—Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, Kahnle—is as impressive as one would guess, though Ottavino can’t possibly strand 99% of runners forever. But homegrown, 26-year-old Jonathan Holder has also been valuable, even if his 4.68 ERA might indicate otherwise.
Holder leads the Bronx Bullpen in innings pitched, and his 3.65 FIP is strong enough that by fWAR, he’s been the second-most valuable guy out there. He’s a righty, and he doesn’t throw particularly hard or strike out all that many batters, but as a bridge to his mightier teammates, he gets the job done.
Results matter, and by bWAR, that ERA is damaging enough to measure Holder as worse than replacement-level. But the FIP/ERA gap is significant, and it’s meaningful, as is eating innings on behalf of a beleagurered pitching staff. Out of the limelight, Holder is helping keep the Yankees afloat.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -165. Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Los Angeles
What should be made of Yu Darvish?
His ERA’s a middling 4.98, and his 5.29 FIP indicates he might actually be lucky to be having that much success. But he’s been willing to throw a lot of pitches, and in his last six starts, there have been positive signs.
After walking nearly a batter an inning over his first eight outings of the year, Darvish has averaged fewer than one every three innings over the last six. His strikeout numbers have tailed off a bit, but his home runs allowed have also dropped notably, despite him drawing more fly balls.
Darvish is a far cry from the pitcher he was prior to Tommy John surgery, or even the pitcher he was immediately following the surgery. But if he can pitch at that 4.00-FIP level he’s managed over the last six starts, he’ll be about as valuable as Jon Lester. And even below their peak levels, a rotation with Jon Lester and Yu Darvish as the fourth and fifth starters is in good shape.
Pick: Over 8 -105. Medium confidence.
