Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,571 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and election futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 93–81 so far, down 5.07 units. We had a good week last week. We’re having a bad week this week. Make of that what you will.
Election futures: These have been our best market historically, with a 17% overall ROI and significant profits both times we’ve done them—in 2020 and 2022. We’re putting 1,000 units into our portfolio this year, but we’re betting it as a series of 20 mini-portfolios, each leveraged against itself. For the most part, we’re putting together one mini-portfolio each Saturday.
Detroit @ Cincinnati
It does seem like the Tigers will be going with a bullpen game today. Their bullpen’s mostly rested, but a few key pieces pitched heavily last night, and Hunter Greene’s been good for the Reds. This is the best one we see from today’s options.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –163. Low confidence. (No starting pitcher requirements.)
2024 United States Presidential Election
We should be clear about two things here: First, Nate Silver has stated that he thinks his model is still underestimating the impact of Joe Biden’s cognitive decline on this race. Second, Silver’s model is for matchup between Biden and Trump, not a matchup between any Democratic candidate and Trump.
Because of this, while we’re still using the model to identify value, it shouldn’t be taken as gospel right now. Here’s the approach, then, behind the six bets below:
- We think the Democratic candidate’s chances will be better if that candidate is someone other than Biden.
- Betting on the Democratic candidate is especially valuable because the bet will settle in August at the Democratic convention. If it hits, we’ll have more units available to bet over the final two and a half months of the race.
- The over/under for the Democratic candidate’s electoral votes sitting at 252.5 is absurd, and we need to hit it hard while we can.
- There’s arbitrage available on Arizona. It’s not high-value enough for us to go that route alone, but because we do have a rather significant bet already down on the Republican candidate to win Arizona, it’s easy to throw a few units on the Democratic candidate at the price available.
- We’re throwing in the other Republican states as a way to diversify our portfolio. With the Democratic nominee now uncertain, a regionally diverse collection of bets is more valuable. (Assumption being, Kamala Harris and Gretchen Whitmer would aim at different regional coalitions, being from different regions and subcultures of the country. This is a small thing, but since the value on the bets is similar, we might as well take it.)
Overall, our return on this mini-portfolio if all the bets we think should be favorites hit is 57%, which would be spectacular. In a Republican sweep (Biden stays in the race and it’s a disaster), we get a 14% return. In a Democratic sweep (Biden exits the race, the new candidate does very well), we get a 6% return. We’re working on stitching all our mini-portfolios together to get more detailed views of our vulnerabilities, but we’re 150 units into a thousand-unit effort. We’ve got some time. We don’t even know with any confidence who the Democratic nominee is going to be.
Pick: Democratic nominee to be someone other than Joe Biden –180. Medium confidence. x9
Pick: Democratic candidate to win Arizona +525. Medium confidence. x2
Pick: Democratic candidate to win under 252.5 electoral votes +105. Medium confidence. x10
Pick: Republican candidate to win Minnesota +230. Medium confidence.
Pick: Republican candidate to win Nevada –225. Medium confidence. x2
Pick: Republican candidate to win Michigan –130. Medium confidence.
