Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 326 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Six picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Baltimore @ Toronto
Andrew Cashner’s name has started coming up in trade speculations, as an aging pitcher posting a solid season (4.03 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 1.5 fWAR to date). But Cashner made that comment back in May suggesting he might not report to his assigned MLB team if the Orioles traded him, which complicates things.
Cashner is on the books for $10M in 2020, but only if he throws around 100 innings over the rest of this season (it’s an option that vests upon reaching 340 innings over 2018-19 combined). To do that, he’d have to average over six innings per start, which isn’t impossible, but isn’t something Andrew Cashner has frequently done in his career.
For the time being, the Orioles get to enjoy having a starter who, at the very least, will go eat up innings every fifth game. We’ll see where it all goes.
Pick: Baltimore to win (+147). Low confidence.
Pick: Under 11 (-115). Medium confidence.
Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Dario Agrazal will make his third start of the season today for the Pirates, which is also the third start of his career. He’s never been a top prospect, but like many pitchers we’ve seen debut in 2019, he’s had a decent level of success in the minors, with a 3.56 career minor league ERA (and a 3.80 corresponding FIP).
His first two big league starts have gone well—especially the more recent of the two, which came in Houston on June 26th. After a leadoff home run by George Springer (which, in all seriousness, can happen to pretty much anyone facing George Springer), Agrazal kept the Astros scoreless, scattering four more hits and three walks over six innings of work. It was the kind of outing that makes FIP skeptical, but even so, his FIP entering today is 4.51 over 10 innings, better than that of 23 of the 80 qualifying pitchers.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win (+120). Low confidence.
Boston @ Detroit
Rick Porcello isn’t exactly having a bad year, but it’s certainly not a good year. His ERA’s 5.07, and while that’s partially driven by frustrating sequencing (his LOB% is only 63.9%, second-worst among qualified pitchers), his 4.41 FIP isn’t exactly inspiring.
Opponents are averaging a launch angle of 13.9 degrees off Porcello, which—if sustained over the entire season—would narrowly miss being his highest mark in the Statcast era (2015-present). He’s also walking 7.2% of opposing hitters, and striking out only 18.3% of opponents, both of which are his worst such marks since arriving in Boston. It’s hard to say what’s driving this. It’s possible his command’s leaving him. It’s possible his stuff is worse, and he’s compensating by trying to nibble more. It’s possible something else entirely is going on.
Whatever the case, Porcello’s odd-year struggles continue.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (+120). Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Tampa Bay
Aaron Judge is back from injury, and is, predictably, raking. In eleven games since returning, Judge has a .422 OBP, a 170 wRC+, and four home runs—two of which came last night.
The numbers might be inflated a bit by those two games he got to play in London, but regardless, Judge doesn’t seem to have missed a beat. Which is all the more demoralizing for the Red Sox and Rays as they watch the Yankees drive away with the AL East.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Colorado @ Arizona
Nolan Arenado probably doesn’t get enough attention, and in that regard, this year is no different. But, by WAR, it’s on pace to be his best season yet. So let’s take a quick look.
Arenado’s wRC+ has been notably consistent since his tough rookie year. After that 77 wRC+ campaign, he’s gone 113, 121, 126, 129, 132, and now 127 to date.
What’s really improved has been his defense. This was the best part of his game when he first entered the league, but it’s taken a back seat in between then and now—until this year, in which his 7.0 defensive runs above average have him first among National League third basemen, on pace for the second-best defensive season of his career.
There was never any question over whether the Rockies were smart to extend Arenado, but even with the bag secured, he continues to improve. It’s a good look for both parties.
Pick: Colorado to win (+110). Low confidence.
