Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,619 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines. Normally, we bet election futures on Saturday, but we’re waiting for Nate Silver to relaunch his model now that the presumptive Democratic nominee has changed. There should be a bonus election mini-portfolio at some point this week to make up for us skipping today.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 104–91–2 so far, down 8.01 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge. It’s been a bad week.
Pittsburgh @ Arizona
Marco Gonzales’s first few starts back have gone well. They’ve gone so well, in fact, that Gonzales has produced more WAR in five outings than he did in 42 combined over the previous two seasons. WAR, though, doesn’t consider how hard Gonzales is letting opponents hit the ball. He’s never been an outlier in home run prevention over his career, but he’s only allowed one so far this season, with a 3.0% HR/FB ratio. His xERA is sitting north of 5.00 despite an ERA and FIP south of 3.00. Those are signs of impending regression, and not the good kind.
Pick: Arizona to win –169. Low confidence. (Gonzales and Pfaadt must start.)
Oakland @ Anaheim
Mitch Spence has been great so far this year, but so has Tyler Anderson, and Anderson’s performance—while surprising—is more believably sustainable given his veteran status. It’s tricky to bet on non-contenders this time of year, but this is the second-best option we’re seeing today.
Pick: Anaheim to win –117. Low confidence. (Spence and Anderson must start.)
