Editor’s Note: Over the last two years or so, Joe has published picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). That’s over 919 published picks, not including futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Detroit @ Cincinnati
Iván Nova got a lot better as last season went on, pulling his FIP back under 5.00 in his final start of the year. Only 33, and having made a full season’s worth of starts each of the last three years, he’ll eat up innings, which is something a rebuilding team like the Tigers can use right now.
The problem is that in Great American Ballpark, against a Reds lineup that added Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos over the offseason, Nova—whose 14th percentile xwOBA last year means he was giving up harder, more scoring-angled contact than 86% of the league—could be in for a long first outing of the year.
Pick: Over 9 (-115). Low confidence.
Kansas City @ Cleveland
Brady Singer makes his major league debut this evening. A 2018 first-round pick out of Florida, Singer’s one of the best prospects in the Kansas City system. But. That doesn’t mean he’s expected to become an ace.
Rather, Singer’s value comes from projections he’ll eat innings and locate pitches. Against a middle-of-the-pack Cleveland lineup, that might be enough to keep the Royals close tonight.
Pick: Kansas City +1.5 (+105). Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Washington
Before the rain came on Thursday, the Yankees reminded us that they can hit just about anyone. Granted, Stephen Strasburg is arguably a better pitcher than Max Scherzer at this point in time, and outranks him in a number of projections, but still, that’s a tough lineup to shut down.
On the other side, James Paxton is no Gerrit Cole, and while he’s a good pitcher, and while the Nationals’ lineup is sorely missing Juan Soto, 8.5’s a low total in this ballpark with this kind of weather.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115). Low confidence.
