Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 356 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Boston @ Baltimore
Jackie Bradley Jr.’s offensive career has been enigmatic. A rough first two seasons, a breakout in 2015 emphasized with a strong first full season in 2016, and now three straight years of below-average offense. He’s still defensively valuable enough that he’s been worth 5.7 fWAR since the beginning of 2017, but his wRC+ has hovered at or below 90.
His power numbers are especially puzzling, going in the opposite direction from what’s conventional for a player in his late 20’s. In 2016, his ISO was .219, but it’s never been above .169 since. Making things weirder, last year was far and away his best year of contact quality, with his highest exit velocity and launch angle.
Whatever’s holding Bradley back, it’s not an urgent concern for Boston—though they’d certainly value any improvement they could get. It’s what’s expected. It’s just a little strange.
Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (+130). Low confidence.
Kansas City @ Cleveland
It’s unclear whether the Royals will trade away Whit Merrifield at the deadline, but if they do, he’ll bring back quite the haul, with 5.2 fWAR last season, and 3.0 to date in 2019. He’s 30 years old and signed through 2022 (with a 2023 club option), but he’s only paid four million dollars a year, making him one of the rare cost-effective proven players on the market.
Merrifield plays both second base and the outfield, a flexibility that increases his trade value in its own right, but especially in a market in which the Cubs, Phillies, Indians, Red Sox, and A’s all rank in the bottom half of the league in second base fWAR and the Nationals, Cardinals, and Indians all rank in the bottom half in outfield fWAR. Dayton Moore’s said he’ll only listen to aggressive offers. It might turn into a question of how willing teams are to go after a title this season.
Pick: Kansas City to win (+155). Low confidence.
Milwaukee @ Arizona
Gio González returns to the mound for Milwaukee today for the first time since May.
It’s a great time for the Brewers.
Milwaukee’s starting pitching, while bolstered by Brandon Woodruff’s excellence, is in the bottom half of the MLB in fWAR, ERA, and FIP. In his six starts this year, González’s 3.25 FIP is better than that of every pitcher on their staff besides Woodruff and Josh Hader.
Six starts is a small sample, and González is aging. But appearances suggest he might contribute, and that contribution might be exactly what the Brewers need to pull ahead in the National League playoff race.
Pick: Under 9 (-115). Low confidence.
