Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,052 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a moneyline today, with futures off for the weekend.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 56–44–3, we’re up 6.78 units, we’re up 7% (the average line on our winners has been –110). April was great, May was bad, June was good. We’re profitable so far on the month of July.
Cleveland @ Texas
It’s weird to see this big a favorite with a pitcher who’s underperformed as much on the year as Andrew Heaney has. It’s not wholly incorrect—Gavin Williams is an uncertain quantity, the Guards put a little weight on their bullpen during last night’s meltdown—but it’s something that makes you feel good about a bet. We’re not just betting on Heaney getting hit around (that’s part of it, but not the whole thing) but we can tell ourselves that we are, and it tracks. Really, we just think the odds have gotten a little too long here.
Pick: Cleveland to win +149. Low confidence. (Williams and Heaney must start.)
