Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,580 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and election futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend, but we’re planning to revisit them on Monday, Tuesday, and potentially more days during the All-Star Break.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 97–84–2 so far, down 5.78 units. We’ve mostly been treading water lately, but we haven’t been able to sustain making up significant ground.
Election futures: These have been our best market historically, with a 17% overall ROI and significant profits both times we’ve done them—in 2020 and 2022. We’re putting 1,000 units into our portfolio this year, but we’re betting it as a series of 20 mini-portfolios, each leveraged against itself. For the most part, we’re putting together one mini-portfolio each Saturday.
Washington @ Milwaukee
Dallas Keuchel walked five batters his last time out and struck out zero. Through three starts, he’s got a 5.45 xERA and a 6.46 FIP. The Nationals do have two tired guys anchoring their bullpen, and both should be unavailable today, but it’s so hard to see the Brewers’ Keuchel experiment ending in anything other than disaster. This isn’t a bad price for that kind of situation, especially with the Brewers’ roster below the MLB average in terms of rest-of-season projected WAR. They’re not like their neighbors in the standings.
Pick: Washington to win +121. Low confidence. (Parker and Keuchel must start.)
2024 United States Presidential Election
We continue to hedge these mini-portfolios against one another, with some of our bets each week designed to hit in a strong outcome for the Democrats and others designed to hit in a strong outcome for the Republicans. We continue to track towards our goal of a 30% return on the portfolio as a whole.
On the Democratic side, finding value is tricky. Right now, betting markets are lower on the Trump campaign’s chances than Nate Silver’s model (and Silver’s model seems to be about in the middle of the pack of the few respectable models out there). It’s hard to find value on things that reflect a strong Democratic outcome. There is, however, an enticing price on Joe Biden dropping out. This wouldn’t reflect a strong Democratic outcome, but polling indicates it would predict one.
The wording of this first bet is important. We already have units down from last week on Biden to not be the eventual nominee. In this first bet, though, whether Biden’s the eventual nominee isn’t what matters. It’s whether he drops out before the convention begins. The result is that we now have three scenarios:
First, Biden is the nominee, in which case we lose both this week’s bet and last week’s.
Second, Biden is not the nominee, but he loses the nomination at the convention, having not dropped out ahead of time. In this case, we’d win last week’s bet but lose this one.
Third, Biden drops out ahead of time. We continue to expect this more than the market does, and while we agree with the market that the probability is lower than it was a week ago, we don’t think it’s dramatically changed (the market thinks it’s dramatically lower). There’s more than a month remaining before the convention, and the number of Democratic stakeholders calling on him to resign is only going to grow. It’s hard to see how anyone would reverse course after already stepping out onto that ledge. Gaffes will continue. Pressure will continue. We think Biden will drop out, and if he doesn’t? We have plenty of bets on a Republican landslide win.
Pick: Joe Biden to withdraw before Democratic National Convention +125. Medium confidence. x9
For our other two good-for-Democrats bets, we’re rolling with Oregon and Rhode Island, adding them to Illinois and New York in our “expensive anchors” category. It’s a reasonable enough return, and the probability is nearly 100%.
Pick: Democratic Candidate to win Oregon –1900. Medium confidence. x3
Pick: Democratic Candidate to win Rhode Island –1900. Medium confidence. x3
Switching to the Republican side, we’re seeing opportunity at a high level, and having been fairly in the weeds so far, we’re happy to zoom out. One thing to note: Some electoral college over/under numbers add up to 539. These markets are stupider than any sports bettor could believe.
Pick: Republican Candidate to win election –175. Medium confidence. x3
Pick: Democratic Candidate under 252.5 electoral votes +105. Medium confidence. x3
Returning to the weeds, we’re going across the upper Midwest here. I think part of the reason some books are keeping Michigan so long for Republicans is that they’re anticipating Gretchen Whitmer’s presence on the Democratic ticket. What’s funny is that they still give her exceptionally long odds to be on that ticket. Again, these markets are dumb. At this point, Trump leads in Michigan. Wisconsin trends redder, and Minnesota trends bluer, but the three are highly correlated, and there’s value on all of them.
Pick: Republican Candidate to win Wisconsin –145. Medium confidence. x2
Pick: Republican Candidate to win Michigan +100. Medium confidence.
Pick: Republican Candidate to win Minnesota +230. Medium confidence.
