Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 337 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Tampa Bay @ Baltimore – Doubleheader
There aren’t a lot of positives around the Orioles organization this year, but Trey Mancini’s bounce-back season is one of them. After a rough 2018, in which he was a below-average hitter, Mancini has returned to form, slashing .288/.348/.512 with a 124 wRC+. He’s accumulated 1.5 fWAR to date, and he’s reportedly drawing trade interest.
Whether the Orioles deal Mancini or not depends on two things (in addition to the offers they receive for him): how valuable he is from a business standpoint as one of the team’s few recognizable players, and how soon they want to contend. Mancini is under club control through 2022, and is making the league minimum this year, making him more valuable as a trade piece than even his numbers would suggest.
If the Orioles do part with Mancini, they stand to receive quite the haul. But they’d likely also receive some justifiable complaints from their fan base as it would be signaled that contention in the next three years isn’t in the plan.
Game 1 Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (+125). Low confidence.
Game 2 Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (+115). Low confidence.
Houston @ Texas
Mike Minor returns to the mound today for the first time in a week and a half, as the Rangers scratched him from his final pre-All Star Break start to extend his rest.
The Rangers are hanging around the AL wild card race, but with both the A’s and Red Sox between them and the field, they aren’t in the most desirable place. Selling is probably the right move, even if it’s a sad move (though plenty can change in the next two and a half weeks before the decision really has to be made).
Minor, as one of baseball’s best pitchers in 2019, would be a top option on the market for a lot of teams. He’s signed through 2020, which increases his value, though more to the market than the Rangers, as their window for consistent contention is likely still a few years out. It’s a tough spot to be in, but better than it could be. Being stuck between valuable prospects and the hopes of a wild card berth is better than having no trade chips and no playoff hopes.
Pick: Texas to win (+123). Low confidence.
