Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,472 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Oakland @ Texas
James Kaprielian’s 2.84 ERA is backed by a 3.82 xERA and 3.98 FIP. Still great, but not 2.84 great.
Pick: Texas to win +115. Low confidence.
Washington @ San Francisco
Jon Lester’s had a rough few starts, but it’s hard to say how predictive those will be. In one of them, he struck out three and walked two over five innings, which isn’t that far off of expectations for him. In another, he allowed five runs in three and a third, but only two were earned.
Given it hasn’t been a terrible stretch, given it’s only been three starts, and given that San Francisco’s a decent place to pitch, Lester’s probably not a red flag today. But they’re a big underdog and he likely won’t be pitching to Yan Gomes, so do with that what you will.
Pick: Washington to win +170. Low confidence.
Game 1: Pittsburgh @ New York (NL)
The Pirates have their ace on the mound and the Mets need wins, so look for both teams to throw everything out there if this is close. Overall, Marcus Stroman and the top end of the Mets’ bullpen, which is fresh, are big enough chips that while this is a low-value play (hence the low confidence unit), it’s a play you can make.
Pick: New York (NL) to win -190. Low confidence.
