Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,961 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.6% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
We start with the Bison, then go to the Tigers. Aren’t nicknames fun?
FCS National Championship: North Dakota State vs. Montana State
The under feels good here in theory, but we aren’t sneaking that one past anybody today. Montana State’s defense is good, and the world evidently knows it.
Still, North Dakota State’s just on a different plane in the FCS. They aren’t purely dominant, like, say, 2020 Alabama, but they’re a better team than everyone they play. Lay the points.
Pick: North Dakota State -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Tennessee @ LSU
The recipe’s here for a bounceback game for Tennessee, who was missing a few key guys in the Alabama loss and was clearly off in some mental way against Mississippi. There’s also the theory here that because Tennessee has played so ugly, they’re undervalued. They did beat Arizona, after all, and while a call (or a few) might have helped, they put themselves in the position to be within a call (or a few) of that win.
LSU should have no trouble playing ugly, though. They’ve got the best defense in the country, by KenPom, and playing at home, it’s their serve to hold. Should be a great game. Should go LSU’s way.
Pick: LSU -2 (-110). Low confidence.
