Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,404 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.3% across 2,266 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball; NFL; NFL futures; college football futures. Here’s the context on each.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 30–33. We’re down 4.47 units, but we’re 9–6 over our last 15 and up 3.56 units over that stretch.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 20–30–8, and we’re down 12.11 units. No positive spin on this one.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected return on the 150 units of 14.60 units, or 4.9%. We may make some more plays tomorrow—depending what happens tonight, we might have some hedges we want to place.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down about 104 units so far. We’ve never lost more than 25% of a futures portfolio before, but this might be the time it happens. We are very sorry. We do believe in our final picks, for whatever that’s worth.
Providence @ Creighton
TCU @ Kansas
Nebraska @ Wisconsin
Texas Tech @ Texas
These are the four we’re most confident in today, given price points. Nebraska is riding high after the win over Indiana but is probably overvalued. Providence is hurting with Bryce Hopkins out. Texas Tech is dealing with some off-court stuff. We don’t love Texas, but we like Creighton to bounce back, and we think Kansas will hit their stride at some point during conference play. We’re taking a shot on that happening today.
Pick: Parlay – Creighton, Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas to win (+163). Low confidence.
Stanford @ USC
Cal @ UCLA
We like what Stanford’s doing but we don’t buy them to keep doing it. It’s hard to sweep these Pac-12 road trips. Cal, meanwhile, just isn’t all that good. There seems to be this current that wants them to be good, but they’re not there yet.
Pick: Parlay – USC and UCLA to win (+105). Low confidence.
UNC @ Clemson
Auburn @ Arkansas
Oregon @ Washington State
We’re scared of UNC today, but we’re scared on all of these. Each is something of a reach. We do think Clemson’s a good team, though, and we’ve seen plenty of slow Arkansas starts turn around, and we don’t think Oregon’s good enough to get to 4–0 in Pac-12 play. We think they know that, too. That’s a lot of the idea behind these moneylines we turn into parlays: We think teams have some ideas of when they will and won’t lose.
Pick: Parlay – Clemson, Arkansas, Washington State to win (+570). Low confidence.
Houston @ Indianapolis
We don’t really think the Colts are five points worse than the Texans, but we’ve thought a lot of incorrect things about individual NFL games this season.
Pick: Indianapolis +2 (–110). Low confidence.
AFC South
On the futures front, we’re in on the Colts as well, really liking the value here and having a big liability on them thanks to our upside on the Texans and Jaguars. We’re taking this through the moneyline parlay because it makes the odds better than what’s offered in straight futures betting.
Pick: Indianapolis to win (parlay – Indianapolis to beat Houston, Tennesee to beat Jacksonville) +480. Low confidence.
NFC
We have nothing on the Cowboys to win the NFC, so while this value is small, it’s positive and it covers a hole.
Pick: Dallas to win +350. Low confidence. x2
AFC
Finally, the big value appears to remain on the Ravens, even at the short odds. The Ravens are very, very good.
Pick: Baltimore to win +130. Low confidence. x2
Super Bowl
Very good, again. (Also, we have enough Niners upside.)
Pick: Baltimore to win +325. Low confidence.
FCS National Championship
CFP National Championship
19 more units on this today. Here’s where our college football futures portfolio’s scenarios now stand:
| FCS | CFP | Final Net |
| SDSU | Michigan by 5+ | -24.68 |
| SDSU | Michigan by 4 | -129.87 |
| Montana | Michigan | -135.17 |
| SDSU | Michigan by 1–3 | -152.17 |
| Montana | Washington | -237.77 |
| SDSU | Washington | -254.77 |
Pick: Parlay – South Dakota State to win, Michigan –4.5 (+123). Low confidence. x19
