Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 774 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech
The best teams outside the Power Six right now are, in order according to KenPom: Gonzaga, Dayton, San Diego State, Saint Mary’s, Houston, Memphis, BYU, Wichita State, VCU, Cincinnati, UConn, Utah State, and Louisiana Tech. Were one to expand the boundaries and eliminate “Power Ten” teams, those from ten best conferences in the country this year, the best “other” team would be that last one—Louisiana Tech.
The point of this is that the Bulldogs are the best team in college basketball’s underworld—the best team in every league that’s all-but-assured to receive just one bid to the NCAA Tournament. Which means that among teams that could surprise even rather tuned-in college basketball fans come March, Louisiana Tech is currently the best.
There’s little Eric Konkol’s team does poorly. They give up more offensive rebounds than they should, foul more often that most would like, and miss too many free throws, but they’re efficient scorers and efficient defenders.
On Monday, they pummeled Southern Miss in Hattiesburg, turning a seven-point halftime lead into a 31-point blowout. Don’t expect a 31-point margin again today, but look for them to once again turn on the jets and leave their neighbor in their wake.
Pick: Louisiana Tech -15 (-110). Low confidence.
UTSA @ FIU
FIU has now been without point guard Tevin Brewer for four games. In his absence, little has changed as far as impressions of the Panthers go. Yes, they lose a havoc-inducer in Brewer, but they run a deep enough lineup that his absence hasn’t been noticed.
It’s possible that could change today if Brewer misses a fifth game, but when looking at what Brewer does well, it’s hard to find anything really concerning about his absence. UTSA protects the ball as well as just about any low-or-mid-major, and Antonio Daye, Brewer’s backup, has registered more assists per possession than Brewer anyway.
In a game featuring two of college basketball’s 25 fastest-tempo teams, some stratification should occur. FIU might not win convincingly, but in a game that good easily hit 80 possessions, convincing means something different.
Pick: FIU -4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Oral Roberts @ Nebraska-Omaha
Both Oral Roberts and Nebraska-Omaha opened Summit League play against South Dakota State. Oral Roberts lost to the Jacks by 17 in Brookings. Nebraska-Omaha beat the Jacks by three in Omaha. Factoring in home-court advantage, that appears a 14-point gap.
It’s possible this direct comparison is what’s swung this line in UNO’s favor. Oral Roberts is a better-enough team to be narrowly favored in this, even on the road, though to be fair, the game is pretty much truly a tossup. With a one and a half-point cushion, a tossup’s enough to justify taking a shot on the visitors.
Pick: Oral Roberts +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
