Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,628 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Illinois @ Wisconsin
Illinois’s tough to get a read on, being so up and down this year, but they’ve been up lately and not up for a long time, which gives us a positive impression of their focus level here. For Wisconsin, things are starting to deteriorate, which is something we haven’t seen on this level since 2018. That year, the Badgers did rally, but we don’t see it starting today.
Pick: Illinois -2 (-110). Low confidence.
Miami @ Pittsburgh
Miami’s either a much better team than we’re realizing, they’re finding ways to win, or they’re riding for a fall. We’re betting on the latter here, and on them not being all that different from Pitt in overall quality.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win -104. Low confidence.
