Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,705 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. How we’re doing…
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 56–52 and we’re down 8.67 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
Pitt @ Miami
TCU @ Baylor
Clemson @ Duke
We’re back to moneyline parlays today, trying to maximize upside while only putting three units into play. This approach worked very poorly earlier this month, but around this time the last two years we’ve found a lot of success with it in private tests (which is what led us to try it earlier this month, when we weren’t finding other things that worked). So, we’re giving it a shot, and what we’re mostly trying to do is dodge upsets. This is our longer shot of the three today, with the thought being that wins in the other two could pay for this risk.
As for the games themselves:
- Texas Tech looks primed to come down to earth (winning 80% of Big 12 games isn’t sustainable for this team) and Oklahoma losing a should-win like Tuesday’s isn’t likely to be the norm. We like that value.
- Pitt’s on a three-game road winning streak and we don’t believe that will last. Miami might have its legs back under it with Norchad Omier returning this week, too.
- Baylor’s the better team than TCU, playing at home, looking to bounce back from a tough road trip of their own. This looks like a higher priority for the Bears than the Frogs.
- Clemson’s a spiral risk, an early overperformer ready to return to its natural state. Duke has been quiet since New Year’s aside from the Pitt loss, but most of that’s been schedule. We think they come back to life ahead of next weekend’s tilt with UNC.
Pick: Oklahoma, Miami, Baylor, & Duke to win (+381). Low confidence.
Texas @ BYU
Mississippi @ Texas A&M
This is one of the safer ones. Thoughts:
- Again, we don’t buy a road winning streak. Not from this Texas team. BYU kind of needs this one.
- Mississippi’s a candidate like Clemson for win–loss regression, as is Texas A&M in the other direction.
Pick: Parlay – BYU & Texas A&M to win (–143). Low confidence.
Bradley @ Indiana State
Northern Iowa @ Drake
We like chalk in the MVC. Indiana State missed their chance against Drake, but we think they’re enough the top dog to complete the sweep of Bradley. UNI can be an agent of chaos, but we haven’t seen six straight wins from this program since before Covid. Give us Drake to bounce back.
Pick: Parlay – Indiana State & Drake to win (–151). Low confidence.
