Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,690 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball, and only that. We aren’t betting on today’s NFL games because 1) we got smoked during the regular season and 2) our NFL futures portfolio is heavily invested in the Ravens and 49ers, so we’re in on today’s action that way.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 44–49. We’re down 11.47 units. We’re up to six straight wins, but we’ve been betting mostly moneyline favorites lately, so we need a high win percentage.
South Carolina @ Arkansas
Arkansas is a puzzling team, but their upside is a lot higher than that of South Carolina’s, and you can make a case after the Texas A&M win that they’ve figured some things out. This is a great price going by talent alone, and I don’t think the teams are necessarily that far away from their fundamental identities.
Pick: Arkansas to win –172. Low confidence.
Alabama @ Tennessee
The big one of the day. Tennessee has so much more to lose than Alabama does. We think they rise to the occasion.
Pick: Tennessee to win –230. Low confidence.
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro
We aren’t all that high on UNCG right now, but people are used to Wofford being competitive and Wofford’s won a few games in a row. That feels like a good setup for a trap.
Pick: UNC Greensboro to win –285. Low confidence.
