Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,948 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.6% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
College football first, then one college basketball pick for the day.
Outback Bowl: Penn State vs. Arkansas
Sam Pittman’s bowl debut, and I believe we’re up to a 17-9-3 record now for head coaches with the poorer bowl record, at least the way we measure it. We’ll see.
Pick: Arkansas -3.5 (-106). Low confidence.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame
Again, a bowl debut, this time for Marcus Freeman, who’s also making his head coaching debut. Notre Dame should be the better team, but is that still true without Kyle Hamilton?
Pick: Notre Dame to win -110. Low confidence.
Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky
There’s decent push potential here, given Iowa’s propensity to drag teams into the mud.
Pick: Iowa +3 (-120). Low confidence.
Rose Bowl: Utah vs. Ohio State
Kyle Whittingham is one of the best bowl coaches, statistically, in the country. He’s facing an Ohio State team that, dubious motivation and all, is likely much better than his Utah squad.
Pick: Ohio State -4 (-115). Low confidence.
Sugar Bowl: Baylor vs. Mississippi
Another bowl debut! This time for Dave Aranda. In instances in which this has been a Big 12/SEC bowl since the Playoff started (as opposed to being a semifinal), the Big 12 is 3-2, but so is the lower-ranked team. Probably nothing to take away from that.
Pick: Baylor +1 (-115). Low confidence.
***
West Virginia @ Texas (men’s basketball)
Texas has been underwhelming to start the year, and has wilted in each of their opportunities against strong competition. The crowd in Austin figures to be rather sparse today. West Virginia has done just about everything they’ve been asked to do so far, beating UConn at home, beating UAB on the road, and losing only to Marquette back before Thanksgiving. And yet…
The talent gap here is wide. And while Bob Huggins is a great coach, Chris Beard’s a great coach too—one who had little to prove over nonconference and a lot to figure out. Maybe the Horns will sleepwalk today. But maybe today will be the day they break out.
Pick: Texas -10.5 (-110). Low confidence.
