Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 802 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 9% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Toledo @ Akron
This was supposed to be a big year for Toledo. After receiving an NIT at-large bid last March, important pieces left, but Buffalo’s return to normalcy left the MAC wide open, and Toledo was among the league favorites.
Now, four games into conference play, they’re 1-3, with Tuesday night’s home loss to Central Michigan the first real indignity. They’ve lost six of their last seven overall, a stretch that began with a thrashing at the hands of UMKC, of all teams.
It’s possible the Rockets will get back on track today, but against Akron, who’s turned out to be the best team in the conference and is rolling at the moment, that looks unlikely.
Pick: Akron -6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Middle Tennessee State @ FIU
Reggie Scurry’s return was supposed to help MTSU. His numbers are solid—he’s among Conference USA’s best in a number of categories. Yet since he returned after the completion of the first semester, the Blue Raiders haven’t won, and their overall ratings have only gotten worse.
In Miami today, against FIU, things don’t look much better. Both teams like to run, and FIU’s adept at forcing turnovers. The Panthers aren’t anything spectacular, but they’re probably about ten points better than MTSU, and that’s without factoring in home court.
Pick: FIU -8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
