Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,672 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball. We’re not making any single-game bets on today’s NFL games because 1) we have enough futures interests at play to have some clear interests (Texans, Dolphins) and 2) we were really bad at picking individual NFL games this year and want to stop that bleeding.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 34–41. We’re down 9.21 units. We did win last night. Please give us credit for that.
St. John’s @ Creighton
Loyola @ Saint Joseph’s
Creighton is capable of playing badly, but St. John’s is probably maxing out what they can do. They’re headed for a letdown and a routine loss. Saint Joe’s should bounce back—it was a tough road trip, but they weren’t getting smoked.
Pick: Parlay – Creighton and Saint Joseph’s to win (–110). Low confidence.
Oklahoma @ Kansas
Cincinnati @ Baylor
We like Kansas to reestablish order, and we believe more in Baylor than Cincinnati.
Pick: Parlay – Kansas and Baylor to win (–124). Low confidence.
Utah State @ UNLV
Utah State’s consistency has been impressive throughout the win streak, but their broader body of work with it hasn’t been. UNLV is not in an altogether different Mountain West caste.
Pick: UNLV to win +107. Low confidence.
Kansas State @ Texas Tech
Cal @ Oregon
We still don’t buy Cal, even if we hate Oregon’s chance of continuing its own win streak much longer. We don’t think Kansas State’s recent turnaround is all that indicative of who they are as a team. They’re fine, but they’re not what they were supposed to be.
Pick: Parlay – Texas Tech and Oregon to win (–116). Low confidence.
Houston @ TCU
Houston has only lost two games in a row once since 2017.
Pick: Houston to win –185. Low confidence.
Saint Mary’s @ Santa Clara
Just because Santa Clara got one big win doesn’t mean they won’t get another. Saint Mary’s has been so inconsistent, too.
Pick: Santa Clara to win +240. Low confidence.
Miami @ Virginia Tech
We’re always ready to be out on this Miami roster.
Pick: Virginia Tech to win –140. Low confidence.
