Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,643 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Michigan State @ Rutgers
Something we want to figure out is the extent to which conference college basketball games even out prior results. We know there isn’t data behind the “hard to beat a team a third time” logic, but does something happen with a subconscious picking and choosing of games? When a team like Rutgers here—better, playing at home, lost on the road to this opponent—is in a position to win, do they take care of business more often than not?
This is real theoretical, but that’s where our head’s at with the pick.
Pick: Rutgers -4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
St. John’s @ Xavier
St. John’s is showing some signs of quitting, and Xavier has rocked at home this year. We’ll bank on the Muskies to make it comfortable.
Pick: Xavier -8.5 (-104). Low confidence.
