Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,783 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. Still no Super Bowl move(s).
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 66–58 and we’re down 8.79 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Utah State @ San Diego State
Maryland @ Michigan State
We like four plays today, but we told ourselves we’d only risk three units, so we’re parlaying these two together, given they’ve got shorter odds than the others.
San Diego State’s in a prime position to bounce back from the loss in Fort Collins, and I’m not sure folks realize how good the Aztecs are at home. In Mountain West play, they’ve only lost one home game a year each of the last six seasons. We don’t think today is this year’s.
Michigan State, meanwhile, is maybe the worst good team. They’re definitely good, but they just do too much losing. To their credit, they’ve generally taken care of business at home, especially lately. We like them today.
Pick: Parlay – San Diego State & Michigan State to win (–112). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech
I’m not sure Cincinnati fans realize how good Cincinnati is, being so accustomed to needing a great conference record. They do have a chance today, but the Big 12 is just too deep, and Texas Tech is a feisty team that should be expected to defend their home court in the wake of the loss this week in Fort Worth.
Pick: Texas Tech to win –225. Low confidence.
Drake @ Indiana State
Drake beat the Sycamores in Des Moines. We don’t see that repeating itself in Terre Haute.
Pick: Indiana State to win –240. Low confidence.
