Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 875 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Kansas @ Kansas State
Kansas is rolling. Kansas State is not. And while it’s fair to be hesitant about rivalry games, keep in mind that this is the worst K-State team we’ve seen in nearly twenty years. Devon Dotson should get to the line with ease. Udoka Azubuike should have ample opportunities to amass second-chance points. Yes, Manhattan will be rowdy. Yes, it’s possible KU will play cautiously, trying to avoid suspensions. But it’s also possible KU is going to want to win by thirty. Against a team as inferior to them as Kansas State, they might be able to do just that.
Pick: Kansas -11.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Arkansas @ Georgia
Isaiah Joe is back. Isaiah Joe is scoring points. Arkansas has outperformed expectations since his return.
It’s a stretch to put too much weight on the presence or absence of any one player in college basketball, with few exceptions, and Joe is not one of those exceptions. But, with the numbers bearing out this pick anyway, even if slightly, and those numbers factoring in five recent bad games for Arkansas in which Joe was absent, and with the line as close as it is, it’s fair to get behind Arkansas to steady their résumé with a Quadrant 2 win.
Pick: Arkansas -1 (-110). Low confidence.
