Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,692 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Syracuse @ Pitt
Syracuse is reeling, Pitt isn’t playing half-bad. I think a thing that might be happening with Syracuse is that they’ve had just enough good days to make people not understand how bad they are. Especially with the respectable overall win/loss record. This is a bad team.
Pick: Pitt -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Virginia @ UNC
We’d feel better about UNC were Virginia not also suddenly very much on its heels. Virginia’s the better team on paper. They’ve been the better team on paper since the beginning of the year. Home-court advantage is not this large.
Pick: Virginia +5 (-110). Low confidence.
Indiana @ Purdue
Home-court advantage is large enough, though, that a Purdue team that’s been slumping a little bit should get right and get revenge today. Big one for the Boilers in the race for a 1-seed.
Pick: Purdue -6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
