Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,882 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, but only the single-day markets. No new futures ‘til Monday.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 99–72–1 and we’re down 3.70 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Boston College @ NC State
We don’t love that Boston College is also coming off a loss here, but NC State has had chances to spiral and hasn’t done it, which makes us like them to get the win.
Pick: NC State to win –200. Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ TCU
On the same note, we don’t love that Cincinnati is coming off a loss, but we also see their recent home struggles as the Bearcats coming down to earth, and we think TCU will protect its home floor better than UCF or Texas Tech did against this team.
Pick: TCU to win –220. Low confidence.
Utah @ Colorado
Mixing it up, we don’t love that Colorado is coming off a win, but it was a game they should have won and it was a full week ago. We think they take care of business in what they likely believe is a must-win game for their tournament chances.
Pick: Colorado to win –275. Low confidence.
