Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 868 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Howard @ North Carolina A&T
Towards the end of December, North Carolina A&T head basketball coach Jay Joyner was suspended. Prior to the suspension, NC A&T was having a respectable, but not great, season. They were 3-11, having narrowly outperformed expectations but won no games of much note, and MEAC play was approaching.
Enter Willie Jones.
Willie Jones took over prior to the Aggies’ game at Illinois, and almost immediately, things changed. NC A&T went from a very average adjusted tempo to one of the fastest in the sport, and with it, their offensive efficiency jumped, even accounting for difficulty of opponent. Since conference play began, following the Illinois game and a tuneup against Mid Atlantic Christian, NC A&T’s averaged more than a point per possession, while averaging an eye-popping 80 possessions per game.
The line, of course, has been accounting for this. But today, it doesn’t look like it’s accounting for it quite enough. Howard has the worst defense in the MEAC, and one that’s accustomed to being run on. It’s one of the worst defenses in the country, and it especially struggles to stop offensive rebounds and easy layups, two things Willie Jones’s team thrives on right now. For calculation purposes, 1.12 points per possession (ppp)—what Howard’s defense has allowed in conference play—is not a wholly unreasonable expectation for NC A&T.
On the other end, Howard’s offense has been average in conference play, scoring 0.98 ppp, just above the league average. NC A&T does have one of the conference’s better defenses, holding opponents to 0.90 ppp, but it fouls a lot and has had the second-best luck in the country when it comes to opponents missing those free throws, something Howard is pretty good at.
Still, for the sake of a calculation, let’s say Howard scores 0.90 ppp, and NC A&T scores a conservative 1.06 ppp. With those numbers, we’d only need 77 possessions to hit the total on the nose. 77’s a lot, but NC A&T’s been under that number only three times in conference play, all three times against the league’s slowest-tempo teams. In other words, even in a relatively slow game by NC A&T’s standards, in which Howard’s defense steps up, the over still has about a 50/50 shot. In one in which either NC A&T scores closer to expectations, or the tempo’s closer to what one would expect, the over should hit easily.
Pick: Over 151 (-115). Low confidence.
Southern Utah @ Weber State
Southern Utah is on the back end of back-to-back road weekends in the Big Sky’s Thursday/Saturday format. Last week, they lost sizably at Sacramento State and Northern Arizona. Thursday, they nearly pulled off the upset of Northern Colorado in Greeley.
Weber State’s had success at home this season. They’re 7-4 overall, and 4-3 in conference, with one of the victories coming over league-leading Montana. It may not sound like a lot, but considering they’re 3-8 on the road (2-6 in conference), it appears notable, and combined with the fact that Ogden’s 4,800 feet above sea level, it constructs a feasible narrative in which altitude is responsible for more than metrics give it credit for.
Here’s a problem with that narrative: The Big Sky’s a high-altitude league.
Here’s a further problem: Cedar City, Utah—where SUU’s located—is 5,800 feet above sea level.
One more: Over the last three or four seasons, Weber State’s demonstrated almost a perfectly average home court advantage in conference games.
Southern Utah’s a meaningfully better team than Weber, with a defense that should cause a lot of problems tonight. It might be close. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Thunderbirds lose. But the line, at this point, either isn’t giving them enough credit or is giving Ogden, Utah too much credit.
Pick: Southern Utah -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Oregon @ Arizona
It’s a huge game, between two of the Pac-12’s three best teams, both of which are in the midst of a four or five-team race for the regular season title (yes, skepticism of UCLA persists around these parts). Arizona, on paper, is the better of the two, but Oregon’s higher in the polls, and after a rough performance in Tempe, is looking to salvage at least one victory from their final road trip of the year.
The teams are fundamentally different in a number of ways, but one of the most notable is their construction. Oregon is Payton Pritchard’s team, relatively experienced even with transfers bulking out the lineup. Arizona starts three freshmen, with big man Zeke Nnaji numerically the best of them. Nnaji has been a machine for the Wildcats, rebounding and blocking shots and making free throws at rates among the best in the country. Against an Oregon team that struggles to prevent offensive rebounds, he should have a big night, though if N’Faly Dante returns for the Ducks that becomes a bit less certain.
Overall, for all their youth, Arizona is better than Oregon by a few points, possessing one of the few defenses in the Pac-12 that can hold its own against Pritchard’s offense. Factor in home court advantage, and Arizona covering becomes the play in one of the biggest games of the weekend.
Pick: Arizona -4.5 (-115). Low confidence.
