Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 832 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 8% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks for the day.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Gonzaga @ San Francisco
This should not be a trap game for Gonzaga, in that San Francisco is likely circled on their schedule, especially on the road. The Dons were a factor in the WCC early last season, and while they never capitalized on their potential, they got themselves on everyone’s radar out there. Even after graduating Frankie Ferrari, Nate Renfro, and Matt McCarthy, they’re nothing to be taken lightly, especially after beating BYU last weekend.
Still, there’s real risk here for the Zags. Killian Tillie might be out, or at least hobbled. San Francisco has size, even if it’s not as skilled of size as that of the visitors. Most importantly, the Dons have the weapons to expose Gonzaga’s biggest weakness: perimeter defense.
Gonzaga is, without question, one of the seven or eight best teams in the country, and that’s generous to those around them on the list. But they’re only 38th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, something that stems from their struggles to defend the three.
Now, some of this might be that Gonzaga is so frequently far ahead that its second line brings down the defensive numbers in the last minutes of games, but they’d have to have played really bad for that to be the whole story. With Khalil Shabazz shooting 42% from three, and San Francisco as a team at 36% (the national average is 33%), the recipe is there for an upset. It’s unlikely, but, more possible than this line implies.
Pick: San Francisco to win (+450). Low confidence.
Wichita State @ Tulsa
Tulsa is surging, having won five straight, including victories over Houston (by two) and Memphis (by 40). Their defense is real, and while Wichita State’s is too, and should pose a lot of problems for a Tulsa offense that sometimes struggles to score, Tulsa is undervalued enough by the market right now to make them a good, home underdog play.
Pick: Tulsa to win (+115). Low confidence.
Utah State @ San Diego State
The logic goes that if San Diego State’s going to lose in the regular season, it’s going to happen tonight. Utah State’s the second-best team in the Mountain West, playing their best basketball since November. Neemias Queta is a handful down low.
But.
The game’s in San Diego.
Utah State’s not that much better than Nevada and Boise State, both of whom SDSU still has to play on the road.
And this isn’t even about whether it’s the most likely game for SDSU to lose. It’s just about whether or not they will lose. And with how good they’ve been at forcing teams to beat them from deep, and how bad Utah State is at beating teams from deep, even a big night from Queta shouldn’t be enough to topple the Aztecs.
Pick: San Diego State to win (-310). Low confidence.
