Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,677 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Baylor @ Kansas
This isn’t last year’s Kansas, this isn’t 2020’s Kansas, this isn’t 2020 or 2021 or 2022’s Baylor, either. The Jayhawks are the better team, they’ve been the better team more consistently, and they’re playing a must-win game at home. Bill Self has an incredible track record in must-win games at home.
Pick: Kansas -5 (-108). Low confidence.
Illinois @ Indiana
Decent chance this game is sloppy.
Pick: Under 142 (-110). Low confidence.
