Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,659 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Alabama @ Auburn
I’m not sold on this idea that Bama and Auburn are going to have a footrace this afternoon. Auburn has been known to grind this year, and their only goal should be to slow down the Tide’s pace today. With both teams strong on the offensive glass and mediocre on the defensive glass, possessions should be extended, too, which raises efficiency but can slow the game down.
Pick: Under 156 (-110). Low confidence.
Kansas State @ Texas Tech
I understand the thought here, and I share the thought that this is not your typical top-ten (or whatever K-State is right now) matchup against the last-place team in their conference. But Kansas State is a lot better than Texas Tech, and Markquis Nowell has some turnover issues but that’s more from sheer usage than any tendency to lose his head under pressure. EMAW, at least for an evening.
Pick: Kansas State pk (-110). Low confidence.
