Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,800 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 76–64–1 and we’re down 8.23 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Providence @ Butler
Providence plays good defense and has been hanging in there admirably since losing Bryce Hopkins, but they’ve also benefited from a schedule in which they played three of the Big East’s worst teams in that stretch in the middle of January. Coming off an overtime win, we think they go down on the road.
Pick: Butler to win –195. Low confidence.
Baylor @ Kansas
Michigan @ Nebraska
We still don’t trust Kansas, but we think they show up for this one. We’ll juice it with Nebraska, against whom Michigan is a little scary but still won’t have Dug McDaniel.
Pick: Parlay – Kansas & Nebraska to win (–164). Low confidence.
Arizona @ Colorado
We’ll gladly follow the crowd here, with Arizona playing a three-overtime game two nights ago and now going to higher altitude. Also, the narrative undervalues Colorado.
Pick: Colorado –2 (–110). Low confidence.
