Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 722 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today in college basketball, and one for the SEC Championship.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Football
SEC Championship: LSU vs. Georgia
LSU has played plenty of good defenses this season. Florida, Alabama, and Auburn all rank in the top eight of SP+’s defensive ratings. None, though, matches the quality of Georgia’s.
Georgia’s defense is, by many measures, the best in the country. Their offense, yes, is lacking, but so is LSU’s defense, and while LSU is deservedly the favorite here, the best defense on their schedule held them to 23 points and a three-point margin.
LSU has something like a 59% chance of winning this game.
Georgia has something like a 59% chance of covering.
Pick: Georgia +7 (-110). Low confidence.
College Basketball
North Carolina State @ Wake Forest
Wake Forest is going to need to pick up some surprising victories if they want to get themselves into the NIT, a reasonable goal for the second-worst team in the ACC this year on paper. If one assumes they need a 16-14 record to be on that bubble (a rough approximation, but the best we can offer at this point), this is one they need to fall in the win column.
For NC State, a potential bubble team on the other end of the NIT, this could turn into a useful second-quadrant win, or even a first-quadrant win if the Deac’s go on to exceed expectations. The Wolfpack have played adequately so far, recovering from an opening-night home loss to Georgia Tech to win five should-win games before splitting a pair with Memphis and Wisconsin. They’re in line to be a bubble team, and with UNC-Greensboro and Auburn coming up on the road, winning today would ease fears of a behind-the-eight-ball start to the 2020 portion of the schedule.
Overall, the odds here seem to be making too much of the most recent result for each team. NC State did handle Wisconsin with ease, but Wisconsin is closer to their 2017-18 selves than last year’s team. Wake Forest did struggle against Penn State, but the game was in Happy Valley, and Penn State’s a top-25 team in terms of quality, if not literal ranking (to be honest, I don’t know if they’re ranked—it doesn’t really matter). It’s by no means a safe pick (there are none of those on the board today, really), but Wake Forest covering is more likely than not.
Pick: Wake Forest +5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Manhattan @ Fordham
The biggest question regarding this line is how much home court advantage counts when schools are only three or four miles apart.
If it counts as much as it normally does, Fordham should be favored by about eight. If it’s completely erased, this five-point line is correct.
Fordham’s defense isn’t spectacular by national standards, or even by those within the conference. It’s a good unit, though, and while it might not be enough to make them a respected foe in the Atlantic-10, it should be enough to establish them as clearly the best team in their borough (Manhattan College, paradoxically, is in the Bronx).
Pick: Fordham -5 (-110). Low confidence.
Charlotte @ UNC-Wilmington
Charlotte made some noise in mid-November, beating Davidson and Wake Forest within six days of one another.
Since then, they’re 1-3, having beaten only South Carolina Upstate and losing by eight at home to UNC-Asheville this Tuesday.
UNC-Wilmington isn’t much to write home about. They successfully slowed down FIU two weekends back to notch a nice victory, but they also scored only 46 points against a struggling Cleveland State the day beforehand. Since Jay Estime’ has been out, presumably with injury, they haven’t really moved in KenPom’s ratings. If they keep maintaining the status quo, they’ll keep this game within a possession. Not much margin for error, but such is the board today.
Pick: UNC-Wilmington +4 (-110). Low confidence.
