Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,233 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
College football first (just one in that world), then college hoops.
College Football
Texas A&M @ Auburn
Each team’s defense is better than its offense, but neither defense is particularly good. A&M did hold LSU to only a late touchdown last week, but LSU’s offense hasn’t exactly been world-beating this year. Overall, this is an oddly low total—likely an overreaction to that A&M/LSU result—that discounts the probability of each team stumbling into points here and there.
Pick: Over 48.5 (-110). Low confidence.
College Basketball
South Carolina State @ UNC-Asheville
Just a weird line here. South Carolina State’s yet to play an opponent within fewer than twenty points. UNC-Asheville’s at least been moderately competitive, having accounted for competition, and returns a good share of last year’s team, however bad that team might’ve been. It’s possible there’s something we don’t know that’s shaping this line, but it’s not exactly likely that thing is actually something that helps SC State.
Pick: UNC-Asheville -11.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Lamar @ Air Force
Alright, let’s talk home-court advantage. This is a useful matchup, because Lamar and Air Force are practically adjacent on KenPom, yet Pomeroy has Air Force as only a two-point favorite at home. Given Air Force has a demonstrated home-court advantage of 4.4 points (fourth in Division I—thank the altitude), this indicates Pomeroy has roughly halved the impact of home-court in his projections. That’s a fair estimate, and while it’s fair to assume Air Force will retain a higher share of their home-court than other teams (the altitude doesn’t go away when the crowd does), they still won’t keep all their home-court. Should you assume KenPom’s a little short on Air Force at home? Sure. But even if you give them half a point, this is still one of the best options available on a tight board.
Pick: Lamar +4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
North Dakota State @ Kansas
Note to self: Would be interesting to check how the talent level of North Dakota-based recruits has changed in recent years as population’s risen in the state.
Note to the rest of you: NDSU’s not amazing or anything, but they’re not this bad (KenPom has it at 21 points, and as we’ve said, there’s some doubt about the proper home-court advantage estimate right now).
Pick: North Dakota State +24 (-110). Low confidence.
