Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,421 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
More World Cup futures, plus college football and basketball picks for today. On the World Cup side: We’re up 11.5 units so far, with six out there pending and 55.5 in our bankroll. We’ll start with the football, then hit the soccer, then wrap up with the basketball.
MAC Championship
Toledo’s more established, I guess, and maybe there are concerns about Ohio I’m missing, but the Bobcats have often been the better team this year, and we like them to get it done today.
Pick: Ohio +3 (-110). Low confidence.
Mountain West Conference Championship
“Reports of Boise State’s demise…” and whatnot. The Broncos are still the kings of the Mountain West, and we expect them to show that.
Pick: Boise State -3.5 (+100). Low confidence.
ACC Championship
We’ve hated on Clemson all year. We don’t like them for moral reasons and we think they’re overrated, which is a compelling source of spite. Still, they’re a lot better than UNC. UNC might keep it close, UNC might keep it interesting, but if Clemson doesn’t do anything spectacularly foolish on the offensive side, they should win comfortably enough in the end.
Pick: Clemson -7.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Big Ten Championship
We’re of the opinion that Ohio State is actually very, very good. Good enough to give Georgia a game in the Peach Bowl, if that’s the matchup. We’re also of the opinion that Bret Bielema is a great coach within the Big Ten. Those two opinions lead us to have a higher opinion of Michigan than the market.
Pick: Michigan -16.5 (-110). Low confidence.
FCS Round of 16: Delaware @ South Dakota State
This is the only FCS game today where Movelor sees much value, holding the line at 24.2, a 4.7-point gap, while every other line is within at least 3.2 points of Movelor’s expectations (and five of the eight are within a point, which might mean we’ve stumbled upon how FCS betting lines are constructed).
Delaware has history, but the CAA is not right now what it’s often been, and there’s no reason to believe the MVFC is anything other than what it’s often been. If South Dakota State isn’t the best team in the country, it’s only because Sacramento State is outrageous. We’ll ride with the Jacks here.
Pick: South Dakota State -19.5 (-110). Low confidence.
2022 World Cup
Seven-to-one odds is a lot for an international game. There’s just so much uncertainty in these. Which is one explanation for why markets saw so many longshots hit on futures during the group stage. Australia will probably lose, but the value is there.
With the Netherlands, this is stemming off of the same exact misread, in our estimation, by the market. The market is overvaluing Argentina’s probability of beating Australia and undervaluing the Netherlands’ chance of getting to play the Aussies rather than Argentina in the quarterfinals. We’re putting two eggs in one basket, then, but we do have the out where if the Netherlands play Argentina next round, there’ll be enough leverage to hedge out if we want to do that.
Pick: Australia to advance to quarterfinals +700. Low confidence.
Pick: Netherlands to advance to final +775. Low confidence.
College of Charleston @ The Citadel
We’re back to betting against Charleston, who we maintain is merely a good low-major and not a full-on good team. This line implies that the Cougars are as good as USC or Kansas State. Maybe they are and we’re fools. More likely, they’re not.
Pick: The Citadel +12.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Cal Baptist @ Cal Poly
Cal Baptist had a few noteworthy overtime losses back in their MTE, but they came against Minnesota and Southern Illinois, which is respectable but uninspiring. At home, we like Poly to hang in there.
Pick: Cal Poly +5.5 (-112). Low confidence.
