Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,543 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Basketball, bowls, and the College Football Playoff (in reverse order):
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs. TCU
It’s possible I’m missing something on TCU, but the logic here seems to be either that Michigan’s defense isn’t up to the task, that TCU will always play to the level of their competition, or that the Big Ten is a lot worse than the numbers say. I believe in the Big Ten.
Pick: Michigan -8 (-107). Low confidence.
Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. Ohio State
But not this much.
At the end of the day, Georgia’s the better team playing a near-home game (not just because of the crowd, but because of familiarity with the stadium), and this line is close enough that it could even hypothetically be covered in a game that goes to overtime. We aren’t getting aggressive here. We trust the Dawgs.
Pick: Georgia -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State
Chris Klieman is 1-1 career in bowl games as a head coach. Nick Saban is 5-7 in them when they aren’t a semifinal or championship game, though the record rises to 18-11 when you include those games. For our purposes…we aren’t going to include them. Our bet is that if this phenomenon even does exist, it doesn’t include those games.
Pick: Alabama -7.5 (-113). Low confidence.
Music City Bowl: Kentucky vs. Iowa
Kirk Ferentz is an even 9-9 in bowl games as a head coach. Mark Stoops is 4-2.
Pick: Iowa -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Merrimack @ Wagner
Wagner’s the best team in the NEC, and while we don’t know the status of Rahmir Moore, he doesn’t stack up as one of their better players on EvanMiya, so we’re unconcerned. We like them to take care of business at home and get to 2-0.
Pick: Wagner -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Gardner-Webb @ High Point
High Point comes into this having lost four straight. Gardner-Webb comes into this having won their Big South opener by twenty. We like a course correction this afternoon.
Pick: High Point +2 (-110). Low confidence.
