Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 754 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our about page.
Three picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
North Carolina vs. UCLA
UNC is, of course, a much worse team without Cole Anthony. How much worse, exactly, is still unclear, but it’s worth noting that since he’s been out, their KenPom adjusted efficiency has dropped something like two points.
Even factoring in those two points, one would expect UNC to be an eight-point favorite today, implying the oddsmakers think the Tar Hells are seven points poorer without Anthony than with him.
That’s not unreasonable—Anthony has been an effective distributor, an aggressive defender, and one of the better players in the country at getting to the free throw line. He’s also had a high usage rate.
That usage rate, though, has cost Anthony efficiency. He grades out below-average offensively, and given how often he fouls, he isn’t the most effective defender either. He’s a very, very good player, and he’s taken over games at times, but UNC might not actually be that much worse without him. Against the worst UCLA team since at least 2010, and possibly 2004, UNC should at least nominally get back on track today. Especially considering UCLA’s one strength—rebounding—should be neutralized by Roy Williams’ team.
Pick: North Carolina -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama
Coastal Carolina was held to 59 in their Sun Belt opener against Troy, shooting 14.3% on 21 three-point attempts.
That shouldn’t happen again today.
For one thing, South Alabama has been one of the poorer defenses in the country against the three this year. For another, Coastal Carolina’s just a lot better than that. They’re inconsistent, yes—held under 60 multiple times, allowed to top 90 multiple times—but on the aggregate, they’re a solid offensive team, and actually one of the best in the country from distance, even including Thursday’s result.
Pick: Over 146.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Western Carolina @ Tennessee Tech
Western Carolina’s a fairly up-tempo unit, with the tendency coming mainly from their defensive numbers. Tennessee Tech prefers to slow it down.
It’s possible the Golden Eagles will take the break and run with the Catamounts, but even if they do, their offense is so impotent that it might not be enough to crack 140, let alone 144.5.
Pick: Under 144.5 (-105). Low confidence.
