Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,904 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
We’ll get the college basketball play for the day out of the way first, then go through all the football, where we’re playing every bowl and FCS game today.
Tennessee Tech @ Wright State (men’s basketball)
Wright State’s been one of the most disappointing low-majors this season, limping to a 1-7 record against Division I opponents with a few unsightly losses in there. This is not a bet that they’ve righted the ship, or even necessarily bottomed out. It’s just a bet that their slide is being overestimated, as perhaps is Tennessee Tech’s ability to “keep it close”—the Golden Eagles have also won just one Division I game, and their single digit losses have largely come against teams much worse than even a bad Wright State.
Pick: Wright State -7.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Boca Raton Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky
For those who missed yesterday, we’re trying something right now where we pick the team to cover whose head coach has the better record in bowls, hoping that’s a sign of how much they “coach to win.” Shawn Clark was an interim for one of his bowls, but he still won both.
Pick: Appalachian State -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Celebration Bowl: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
No bowl record for either coach here, and the Celebration Bowl may be unique anyway, but reverting to SP+, Jackson State should be a two-touchdown favorite. Significantly better team.
Pick: Jackson State -10.5 (-110). Low confidence.
FCS Semifinal: South Dakota State @ Montana State
This is certainly risky, with SP+ fairly neutral on the line and Montana State playing at home on a cold day. South Dakota State’s used to playing outside, though—they aren’t a dome team, like the other Dakotas and Northern Iowa—and they’re just probably the better outfit, which might not mean the world playing on the road against another top-ten opponent, but does mean something. Montana State’s offense has some real bad days. We’ll hope for one of those today.
Pick: South Dakota State -5 (-110). Low confidence.
New Mexico Bowl: UTEP vs. Fresno State
Neither head coach has coached a bowl game in this one, but we’ll give the edge to the team that isn’t going through a coaching transition.
Pick: UTEP +11 (-105). Low confidence.
Independence Bowl: UAB vs. BYU
Kalani Sitake’s 3-1 in bowls so far in his career. UAB might be undervalued, but BYU’s got the guys.
Pick: BYU -6.5 (-110). Low confidence.
LendingTree Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty
Hugh Freeze is 4-2, including a 2-0 mark at Liberty.
Pick: Liberty -9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
LA Bowl: Utah State vs. Oregon State
This is Oregon State’s first bowl since the Mike Riley years. Blake Anderson went 2-4 in bowls at Arkansas State.
Pick: Oregon State -7 (-110). Low confidence.
New Orleans Bowl: Marshall vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Marshall’s probably playing a road game here, but ULL’s going through a coaching transition, and no matter how smooth Billy Napier tried to make it, that’s difficult (this is an admittedly haphazard approach by us—we haven’t looked into how teams do in bowls when they’re transitioning coaches, and we only looked at overall head coaching records, not records against the spread, which might be more telling).
Pick: Marshall +4 (-110). Low confidence.
