Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,492 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
No action today on the World Cup—we may have some tomorrow, or we may just let our Argentina plays ride—but we’ve got college basketball, the second FCS semifinal, and bowl games. Let’s begin.
FCS Semifinal: Montana State @ South Dakota State
The line on this has dropped in the last 24 hours, but even at 5.5, we were liking the Jacks. Incarnate Word did exceed expectations against NDSU last night, which could point to some overvaluing of the MVFC, but Incarnate Word exceeded expectations against Sacramento State last week, and Sacramento State plays with Montana State in the Big Sky, so the same logic should apply.
The Bobcats seem to have gotten better and better over the last month or two. The Jacks played an ugly game last weekend against Holy Cross. There’s a danger in assuming those trends keep pushing the teams in the same direction, rather than leaving them where they now are.
Pick: South Dakota State -3.5 (-114). Low confidence.
Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Louisville
As we wrote yesterday, our experiment last year led us to believe that coaches’ prior bowl records may be overweighted as a positive in betting lines. Last year, the head coach with the worse bowl record covered the spread more often than not.
Unfortunately, neither of these coaches has ever been a head coach for even a game before. At least at the college level. So, we’re defaulting to following Movelor instead.
Pick: Louisville -2 (-110). Low confidence.
Celebration Bowl: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
Deion Sanders is still coaching Jackson State through this game, and he enters with an 0-1 career bowl record. Trei Oliver has never coached a bowl game.
Pick: Jackson State -14 (-108). Low confidence.
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs. Oregon State
Billy Napier is 1-2 in bowls. Jonathan Smith is 0-1.
Pick: Oregon State -8 (-110). Low confidence.
LA Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington State
Jeff Tedford is 7-3 lifetime in bowls: 5-3 at Cal, 2-0 at Fresno State so far. Jake Dickert is 0-1.
Pick: Washington State +5 (-107). Low confidence.
LendingTree Bowl: Rice vs. Southern Miss
Neither Mike Bloomgren nor Will Hall has ever coached a bowl game. Which brings us back to Movelor.
Pick: Southern Miss -6 (-110). Low confidence.
New Mexico Bowl: BYU vs. SMU
Kalani Sitake is 3-2 in bowls. This is Rhett Lashlee’s first.
Pick: SMU -4 (-113). Low confidence.
Frisco Bowl: Boise State vs. North Texas
Phil Bennett’s an interim guy for UNT, but he did win the BBVA Compass Bowl with Pitt in 2010, also as an interim. Andy Avalos didn’t get to coach the Arizona Bowl last year due to it being canceled by a Covid outbreak within Boise State’s team.
Pick: Boise State -10.5 (-108). Low confidence.
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic
FAU is one of the best mid-majors in the country, though they’ve yet to really crack even the blogosphere consciousness. With FIU fond of pushing the pace, this should get out of hand.
Pick: Florida Atlantic -15 (-110). Low confidence.
Northern Illinois @ VCU
NIU didn’t play a lot of its normal role players against Gonzaga, but it’s unclear why. Were they out? Are they out? Regardless, it’s no key figures, and the Huskies played fine in that game. We’ll take them to keep it closer than expected here (though we don’t expect this to be close).
Pick: Northern Illinois +18 (-110). Low confidence.
