Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 734 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Purdue-Fort Wayne @ IUPUI
This year’s edition of IUPUI has performed below already-low expectations. They’ve lost three games by more than thirty, failed to crack 65 in more than half their games, and recorded just one win over a Division-I opponent (a puzzling 17-point thumping of USF in Tampa). They’ve performed poorly against the spread, and bettors seem to be banking on this being a habit, with this line shifting a point in IPFW’s direction since opening.
Still, IUPUI’s playing at home, and IPFW might be without Brian Patrick, one of their primary offensive threats. Patrick’s name doesn’t appear in the second half of the play-by-play from last Saturday’s loss to UIC. He didn’t play on Tuesday against Judson College. His name appears alongside “ankle” in Twitter searches. It’s unclear, but with the line already appearing to overestimate the Mastodons, it’s another reason to take a shot on the home team.
Pick: IUPUI +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Bethune-Cookman @ Cal Baptist
Cal Baptist is in the midst of a transition from Division-II to Division-I. Which, for all intents and purposes, just means they can’t play in the NCAA Tournament or the NIT. They did play in the CBI last year, and they’re a candidate to make a repeat appearance as one of the better teams in the WAC.
It’s possible Ty Rowell will be missing again tonight for the Lancers. Rowell, one of Cal Baptist’s better players, rolled his ankle a week and a half ago against UC-Riverside and missed last Saturday’s game with UC-Irvine. Bethune-Cookman, though, might be without starting guard Leon Redd, who only played six minutes last weekend against Jacksonville. These absences might not even out, but it’s hard to tell in which direction their aggregate would fall, and overall, Cal Baptist is slightly undervalued.
Pick: Cal Baptist -9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Saint Mary’s @ California
It’s a tricky game for Saint Mary’s—on the road in Berkeley against a struggling team with nothing to lose. It would likely wind up a very damaging loss, should the Gaels fall, and one they might not be able to afford if they want an NCAA Tournament berth, especially with the loss to Winthrop already on their team sheet.
A loss for Saint Mary’s isn’t likely, though. Cal is bad at defending three’s. Saint Mary’s has the third-highest three-point shooting percentage in the country. Saint Mary’s has experience and continuity. Cal is still figuring itself out.
Still, with what should be a glacially-paced game, don’t be surprised if Cal keeps it to single digits. They aren’t that much worse than their guests.
Pick: California +8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
